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Predicting share market and trend

Predicting share market (stock market) movements is not an exact science, but there are several methods investors use to make informed predictions. Here's a breakdown of the main approaches used to predict share market trends:


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🔍 1. Fundamental Analysis

This method is used to evaluate a company’s intrinsic value based on:

Financial statements (Profit & Loss, Balance Sheet)

Earnings growth

Debt levels

Management quality

Industry position

Example: If a company like Infosys has good profits, low debt, and a growing sector (IT), its stock might rise over time.



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📊 2. Technical Analysis

This involves analyzing past price movements and trading volumes using charts.

Tools include:

Moving Averages

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

MACD

Candlestick Patterns


Example: If a stock breaks above its 200-day moving average, it may signal a bullish trend.



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🌍 3. News & Sentiment Analysis

Company news, government policies, global events, and investor sentiment can influence markets.

Example:

Positive news: Merger, new product launch, good results → 📈

Negative news: Scandal, losses, global war tension → 📉




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🧠 4. Quantitative Models & Algorithms

Professionals use AI models, machine learning, and statistical tools to find patterns.

Retail investors can use platforms like TradingView, Screener.in, or Tickertape to get data insights.



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📅 5. Macro-economic Factors

Inflation, interest rates, GDP growth, currency value, etc., influence share prices.

Example: If RBI reduces interest rates, borrowing becomes cheaper → Companies grow → Market rises.



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✅ 6. Tips to Start Predicting Smartly

Start with paper trading (demo accounts).

Use apps like Moneycontrol, TradingView, Zerodha Varsity to learn patterns.

Follow market experts and YouTube channels for daily analysis.

Keep a trading journal and track your predictions vs reality.



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⚠️ Important Note

No one can predict the market 100% accurately. Even experienced investors face losses. The key is:

Managing risk

Diversifying investments

Avoiding emotional decision


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